Trans is not the new gay

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This is a response to a reader comment on my research report, The Truth about Trans in New Zealand. I’m posting it here so that I can more easily include links to sources, and because I thought this question might be of general interest to my readers.

Hi CoRvA,

Thanks for reading my report and for taking the time to comment. You raise an interesting question, one that would take a full article to really address properly. Here are a few thoughts.

Bailey et al. published a 2016 research review in Psychological Science in the Public Interest which provides the best relevant overview I’ve found regarding the topic you’ve asked about. They acknowledge that the relevant research is limited, but draw some tentative conclusions based on the available evidence. In their words (but combining quotes from a couple of different places), one conclusion they draw is:

Sexual orientation refers to relative sexual attraction to men, to women, or to both. People who are sexually attracted to the same sex (whom we denote as “nonheterosexual”) represent a minority of adults. Those with predominantly same-sex attractions comprise fewer than 5% of respondents in most Western surveys. Data from non-Western cultures are consistent with this conclusion. There is no persuasive evidence that the rate of same-sex attraction has varied much across time or place...

...

In contrast, sexual identity and behavior are far more susceptible to cultural variation. Indeed, the sexual-identity categories of “gay,” “lesbian,” and “homosexual” are historically and culturally specific, and they do not necessarily translate to other times and places.

...

The most common meaningful controversy across time and place has concerned the extent to which homosexuality is socially influenced and, more specifically, whether or not it spreads as a result of contagion and social tolerance. There is no good evidence that either increases the rate of homosexual orientation, although tolerance may facilitate behavioral expression of homosexual desire. Suppressing homosexual behavior imposes an immense burden on homosexually oriented people and serves no apparent legitimate social goal that cannot be reached in other ways.

In other words, Bailey et al. conclude that the underlying rate of same-sex attraction hasn’t varied much over time. However, the number of people openly identifying as gay and lesbian has increased in many Western societies over recent decades, probably as a result of greater social tolerance. This is obviously a social influence (as opposed to a genetic, biological, or other non-social cause). Bailey et al. believe that this greater tolerance is a positive social development, and I agree.

As this article points out, all of the plausible explanations for the dramatic increase in rates of medical transition consist of social influences of some kind. This includes the explanations put forth by prominent advocates of medically transitioning children and adolescents. For example, Jack Turban has attributed increased rates of medical transition to factors such as “increased visibility of transgender youth in the media”, “greater understanding of the experiences of transgender youth”, “decreased stigma towards transgender people”, and “an increase in awareness among the general population that gender-affirming medical interventions for transgender adolescents exist”. These suggested causes are all social influences.

I’m curious about what non-social influences you believe may have caused the increased number of people who openly identify as gay or lesbian? Or the increased number of people seeking medical gender transition?

I believe that greater social tolerance and reduced stigma towards transgender people is a positive social development, as it was for gay and lesbian people. However, for the reasons I’ve outlined in my report, I’m not convinced that the increased number of people seeking medical gender transition is due to increased social tolerance alone (although that’s probably one factor for some people). The Carol Tavris article from Skeptic magazine that I link to in my report provides more detail on this, as does this Medscape article: Time to Hit Pause on 'Pausing' Puberty in Gender-Dysphoric Youth. And see also this recent article for information about the striking parallels between the trans wave and the ‘repressed memory’ movement.

Additionally, medical transition carries serious health costs, as I outline in my report. It is also difficult to reverse. For these reasons, I believe we need to be extremely cautious about steering young people towards this pathway.

I hope this is helpful in answering your question.

Kind regards,

Laura